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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has been on a freefall since July 24, 2018 when its dead cat bounce came to an abrupt end at a price level of $8,496.96. The “smart money” used the rally to dump positions. Even support of $7,400 could not halt the skid. By August 14, BTC was trading below $6,000 and gloom and doom forecasts of a drop to $4,000 once again dominated the conversation.

Just as the calls to short the largest cryptocurrency were becoming louder, the market rallied to $6,628.50 on August 15, obliterating many short positions in the process. It’s not easy to trade Bitcoin, but if you look closer, you can see that there’s a method to the madness. 

Technical analysis show that BTC/USD is about to break out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the hourly chart. This is the same pattern that Bitcoin used to spark a rally on July 18, 2018. If you’re looking for a reversal, this pattern should be your primary candidate.

The strategy is to buy the breakout at $6,600 as long as the market generates volume of 500 Bitcoin units on the hourly chart. So far, the $6,600 resistance is proving to be one tough nut to crack. Bitcoin needs heavy volume to help push the price above the resistance.

Once BTC/USD takes out $6.600, it can quickly climb to our target of $7,400. Sell immediately. This might be another pump and dump rally.

The process may take less than a month.

Hourly Chart of Bitcoin/US Dollar on Bitstamp

As of this writing, the BTC/USD pair is trading at $6,351.01 on Bitstamp.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: Breakout at $6,600 with volume of 500 BTC.

Target: $7,400

Stop: $6,500 after the breakout.

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.